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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-28T21:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39818/-1
CME Note: CME observed as a faint partial halo, nearly a full halo, directed towards the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, and a brighter front to the NE in STEREO A COR. Also faintly observed in currently available frames of SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is a C4.0 flare from AR 14126 (N07W22) which peaked at 2025-06-28T19:54Z observed in SDO AIA 131, alongside brightening in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and a small dimming SW of the region best seen in SDO AIA 193. Arrival characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components (B_t: approx. 4.2nT to 13.2nT , B_x: approx. 6.7nT to -8.1nT , B_y: approx. 4.8nT to -4.9nT , B_z: approx. -7.6nT to 9.7nT) along with enhancement in speed (approx. 342km/s to 407km/s), temperature (approx. 12kK to 44kK) and density (approx. 7p/cc to 33p/cc). This signature also displays separation in magnetic field components, indicating the possible passage of a flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-07-03T05:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-07-01T17:42Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39820/1
Model Inputs:
2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=9.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=589.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2025-06-29T02:07Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-07-01T17:42Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =24.7 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.3
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-07-01T03:30Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-07-01T08:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 102.15 hour(s)
Difference: 35.93 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2025-06-28T23:29Z

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